What are we talking about? Well, let’s say we have a future outcome. Let’s say somebody says bitcoin will be worth 11,000 USD by end of year 2019. That’s a guess and Prediction markets is when a bunch of people guess on the outcome. For instance, they could guess on the worth of Bitcoin in 2019. That’s that’s really all it is, and there are three types of guesses and answers people could make:
Binary: yes or no answers to if an even will happen.
Scalar: what number do you think it will be? The closer the answer, the bigger the reward.
Categorical: many different answers, kind of like a multiple choice question.
So those are prediction markets and what does it have to do with blockchain tech? Well the blockchain community made a huge push to build more predication markets because we already know a lot of them already exist in the realm of sports.
But the blockchain market is really big on openness and transparency and we’ve discussed how blockchain seeks to expand and build more transparent projects. In our previous articles here at Free Startup Kits.
Top Blockchain Prediction Markets 2019 – Augur
Top Blockchain Prediction Markets 2019 Augur
Augur is probably one of the first, if not, the first that addresses this with blockchain. It allows anyone to create a future event and people can bet
on the outcome.
So how does Augur know that people make the right guess? Well they use something
called “oracles,” everyone’s guesses get logged on a blockchain and their money gets rewarded and spent on the blockchain but blockchains cannot get external data directly. So blockchains cannot use application programming interfaces (API’s for short). Blockchains have to use something called an Oracle to connect to an external data source.
An API provider just provides information, and the API provider can connect and let it know yeah; future event did happen. After, accurate predictors get the token so everything is transparent, open source, with no government intervention etc.
Top Blockchain Prediction Markets 2019 – Gnosis
We have a similar project called Gnosis. and Gnosis does something very
similar to Augur and main difference in a nutshell how they collect the data. You can learn more at their website.
Top Blockchain Prediction Markets 2019 - Cindicator
We have another project called “Cindicator” and Cindicator is more focused on how it collects data and how it uses artificial intelligence to turn this data into financial products. So for example, it collects all the price guessing data from people making a guess and it will use artificial intelligence to systematically make a better way to get these financial guesses.
After that, it will make robots that can actually make trades automatically for people
and charge investors a fee. in their token, making their token naturally actually rise in value as more people hold the token to use their services.
Top Blockchain Prediction Markets 2019 – Stox
We have another project called “Stox”… with an X and Stox was made by the guys at investing.com
I believe, and Stox is really big on combating the centralized prediction markets so it’s just again, for more transparency etc.
Top Blockchain Prediction Markets 2019 – Santiment
Another project is called “Santiment.” Santiment is very big on building financial projects with the crowd intelligence, kind of like Cindicator.
But that was a smaller focus on prediction and more of a focus on analysis. Kind of like Bloomberg or like TradingView.com but for cryptocurrency. and one reason why you see a lot of these projects in the cryptocurrency space blowing up for prediction markets is also because it is a very new market.
There’s not that much data and there’s a lot guesswork people are doing and when you see a lot of people doing this guesswork you see some people who are really good in the space they are good at poker and there’s a lot of gambling. People who are familiar with gambling are good at this market. So there’s a lot of regulatory things that come into place when creating prediction markets because of gambling rules. As a result, that may be a big push as to why there are a lot of prediction markets in the blockchain and cryptocurrency space. So that’s just a quick look at some of the best blockchain prediction market projects.
About the Author
Natu Myers helps blockchain projects get funded and evaluated by investors.